Day 40 of UK lock down: The writing is on the wall for fossil fuels

The oil industry is foundering, and even traders in futures markets are beginning to seek more buoyant ships.

Meanwhile, forward looking companies that read the writing on the wall some time ago, such as Danish state-owned oil & gas company (Dong) morphed into a renewable energy company (Ørsted), are now thriving despite the pandemic. See report here.

In a recent article in the influential Science Magazine, Daniel Rosenbloom & Jochen Markard summarise very lucidly the global opportunity created by the current circumstances for a rapid move to a cleaner future.

At the same time, they highlight the need not only to avoid bailing out fossil fuel companies and industries, but also to support affected workers and communities in the form of temporary relief, retraining, and retirement benefits. The choice of a cleaner and more sustainable future involves a fair and regenerative approach to human resources too.

And opinion from within the oil industry is beginning to shift in the same direction !

Day 38 of UK lock down: The End is Nigh

BP has gone from a $2bn profit this time last year to a $500m loss, but is still issuing a dividend to their investors, which looks like delivering a 7% yield , albeit by drawing on their capital & depleting their resources. This is clearly is not a sustainable long term strategy, but then neither was what the fossil fuel industry has been doing to the planet for the last 300 years.

Oil prices are currently at the lowest point for 160 years, although that’s not quite as dramatic as it sounds, since prices were almost as low in the 1970s and late 1990s. Nevertheless, Jeremy Cliffe, writing in the New Statesman, makes the point that, regarding the end of the Age of Oil, it’s now a matter of not if but when.

And the answer to that rather depends who prevails – short sighted investors and their populist politician puppets, or people prepared to seize the moment and change to a regenerative & circular economy.

Read analysis of oil price here

Read depressingly upbeat oil industry forecast here

Day 34 of UK lock down: distressed billionaires

The queue for financial bailouts from the lock-down is getting longer, with not only Richard Branson, Victoria Beckham, and various owners of huge grouse-slaughtering estates in Scotland seeking support from the UK government (aka UK tax payers), but also the Trump Organisation . Yes, that Trump, the sarcastic one, because seemingly his loss-making golf courses are now making even bigger losses. Not that losses from golf courses are his biggest problem just now. See NY Times analysis here

Christiana Figueres pointed out, in the recent BBC radio programme Fallout, that there are some important parallels in dealing with Corona virus and with the climate & ecological emergency. In particular, those countries which understood the science and the need to give speedy attention to areas of high probability &, high impact risk, are those which have done much better in mitigating the problems. Those countries led by idiots or sociopaths not so much.

When it comes to giving public funding to help prop up business affected by the pandemic, the choice seems very clear – we can follow the clamour from the greedy rich, and return to an unsustainable “normal” which created the environmental mayhem in the first place, or we can take the opportunity to support those businesses which help us move towards a sustainable and regenerative way of being.

Day 33 of UK lock down: Hiding in a fridge at Chequers

Having mooted injecting disinfectant, and shining really really bright lights inside Covid-19 patients, as possible cures, Trump has shone his laser-like stable genius on a medical assessment of the UK’s missing prime minister, whom he thinks is “ready to go”. Quite a lot of people in the UK have already been thinking that Johnson should go, along with his cronies, to make way for a competent government which is capable of dealing with this crisis, instead of the Dad’s Army tribute act we’re currently saddled with.

Meanwhile, back in the grown-up world, Caroline Lucas has put it very succinctly: “This global health emergency has laid bare the failings in our current system. But, if we choose to, we can lay the groundwork for a fairer, greener recovery, and rebuild a society that is more equal and more resilient, and where people and Nature thrive.”

And the Dutch government have also been putting the lock-down time to good use, producing a clear and convincing plan for a Green Recovery from the pandemic, which could serve as a model for any responsible government.

Read latest Trump bollox here

Link to Netherlands recovery plan here

Day 32 of UK lock down: Pinning the Tale on the Donkeys

In an attempt to deflect the tidal wave of blame looming over this inept and mendacious UK government, Dominic Raab boasted at PMQs yesterday: ”People said that we couldn’t build a hospital in this country at that kind of speed, and we’ve built several, with more to come.”

Unsurprisingly, he neglected to mention the 100,000 unfilled staff vacancies arising from 10 years of neglecting the NHS, which mean that there aren’t enough ICU staff for those new hospitals, and patients are being turned away (see report here). Not to mention the homicidal negligence shown by the government with regard to PPE procurement, so even if there were available staff, they’d be inadequately protected (See Philip Pullman's excellent essay on the subject here).

More proof, as if it were needed, that we can’t rely on Johnson & his cronies to lead the country anywhere other than a crashing out of the EU. (See analysis here) Except when it comes to keeping access to Europol databases, obvs (See report here)

One bit of good news is that the Labour party seem to have elected an effective leader of the opposition, capable of holding the complacent and useless bastards to account.

Day 31 of UK lock down: Earth Day

Today is Earth Day, and 50 years on from the first of these days marked out to show unified support for environmental protection across the globe. 

A telling reminder that the environment has been firmly on the international agenda for at least half a century and yet, despite some very significant advances,  GHG emissions are still rising, and we’re still devastating ecosystems in pursuit of our consumerist addictions.

What’s different this year is that Earth Day is happening in the midst of a once in a generation global upheaval that has thrown normality up in the air, giving us a real chance to make changes at the scale they need to be made. We have come to a major fork in the road, where we must choose our future, and it’s not about survival or not. Survival isn’t enough – it’s about what kind of Earth do we want.

Charles Eisenstein sets out the stark choice very clearly in this short (6 minute) video

#WeCanChange !

Day 30 of UK lock down: we don't have to be led by any kind of donkeys

Covid-19 travel restrictions and slowing down of business & industry have led to a dramatic drop in demand for oil, and an equally dramatic drop in oil price, and oil producers are now racing to reduce production. The US was too slow off the mark, and over-production there, coupled with full reserves, led to negative pricing for the first time ever, which is a revealing indication of the power of market demand over these allegedly unstoppable Molochs.

Blaming the oil companies for what they do is like blaming lions for eating antelope, which is not a solution. Move the antelope elsewhere, and the lions will go away.

We have a huge opportunity here to seize the moment and push for a swift transition to renewable energy, and for a radical review of our underlying energy demand. We can change, and this is the moment to do it.

Report on oil price response to reduced demand