Not with a bang but with a whimper

No run for a couple of days due to a badly timed head cold. The British news is still full of reviews and predictions and, today, reports of that ludicrous & outdated institution by which the UK government continues to award knighthoods and membership of the British empire* (no, it’s true) to people they deem worthy (ref). Personally, I’d rather get a book token. One of the more incisive summaries of the past year seemed to be that by Polly Toynbee, writing in the Guardian (ref), achieving an impressive Force 9 on the Anti-Cameron Scale.

*That’s the empire which, at its peak, screwed and subjugated one fifth of the world's population, and now consists of a few rocky outcrops in the southern hemisphere.

Predictions for next year

Two more good woodland runs in the last 3 days, cold and wet respectively, as the year draws to a dreary end.

On a not especially brighter note, here are some of my predictions for what will be big in 2012:

• Further financial recession (but maybe less materialism ?)
• but more right-wing extremism (as the going gets tough, liberalism gets flabby).
• US presidency (nail-biting choice between the disappointing and the appalling).
• UK republican movement - (have you seen that barge ? ).
• Scottish independence (ref) (but Alex, lose some weight – we need you healthy).
• Global warming & climate change (it’s only going to get worse).
• More self-destructive squabbling within the UK coalition government, & dithering by Labour, creating opportunities for the Greens as well as the SNP.

Xmas message

Two good runs and a sand-blasting beach walk over the last 3 days.

Today we listened to the Queen’s annual message to her loyal subjects. Clearly written by government spin doctors, it was notable for three distinct pieces of propaganda. The first was a brief eulogy about the allegedly happy and mutually supportive family which is the crumbling remnants of the British empire – probably in anticipation of some posturing about Malvinas oil reserves off the coast of Argentina. Second was stressing the benefits of sport. She seemed mainly to be referring to polo and the recreational slaughter of animals, but the sub-text was unmistakable, at a time when her loyal subjects are about to host the hugely expensive Olympics in the teeth of a double-dip recession.  And finally, echoing some recent waffling by David Cameron about Britain being a Christian country, she was bigging up the role of forgiveness in modern life. Cameron was obviously trying to appease some of his red-neck supporters, but the Queen's motive was less clear although, when that message comes from such a privileged and socially-insulated mouth, Marx’s opium of the masses springs immediately to mind.

Yule break

Back to the city, and a chilly woodland run.

The UK media is mainly full of Christmas nonsense and reviews of the year, so my news analyst takes the opportunity for a rest to recharge his laser-like forensic faculties, leaving only a skeleton staff for the vital running reports.

Business as usual

A mild, breezy & damp morning for a brisk & early loch-side run. My first geography teacher used the memorable phrase "warm, wet, westerly, winds in winter" to characterise the UK climate, which in that respect hasn't yet changed, 45 years later.

Reassuringly, whilst cutting the subsidy for photovoltaic panels (per se a sensible move), the UK government have done it in a way which is both incompetent and illegal (ref). Reassuring, that is, for the rapid restoration of normality. What’s more, their own advisors are advising them that their “flagship” programme to improve the energy efficiency of 14 million homes is just so much piss & wind. I’m sorry, I’ll retype that….. is going to fail and only reach 2-3 million homes (ref). Which probably isn’t of huge interest to people outwith the UK, except perhaps as yet another instance of the failure of the so-called democratic process to deliver honest and effective governance, particularly when there is very little fundamental difference between the political parties.

Merry Beltane & a peaceful new year

A damp, dark, and murky run today, with a stoic audience of sheep grazing on the loch shore.

Here in the northern hemisphere the winter solstice occurred this morning at 05.30 GMT/UTC  (ref), so now the real new year begins, the days start getting longer again, and there actually is something to celebrate amongst all the bollox.

Trial & error

Another hazardously icy morning, so coffee in bed instead of a run, for safety reasons. Life is tough sometimes.

On the whole in this blog I’ve tried to avoid discussing the internal affairs of other countries unless they impinge on the wider global community. The trial of Bradley Manning seems to fall into that second category because the US is so universally generous with its hegemony. 

Regardless of whether passing the information to WikiLeaks was morally justifiable or not, if the reports from Manning's trial are true, then he was evidentially unsuitable for having access to that confidential material, and the fault lies with his inadequate supervisor, who didn’t notice or act on that evidence.  To make Manning himself the scapegoat for a failed system would be a shameful travesty of justice - but, sadly, that's unlikely to affect the outcome. 

Seasonal cheer

Yesterday was a stunningly beautiful morning for a loch side run, but today was too slippery. 

Talking of which,  being in agreement with anything this UK government does is a very disorientating experience, but life is full of surprises. Until recently they (ie the UK tax payer) have been subsidising the installation of expensive photovoltaic panels to the extent that installers would effectively receive a 10% return on their capital investment, regardless of whether they use their volts efficiently, or whether they use the subsidy to fund their gas-guzzling 4x4. Last week the subsidy was cut by half, amid howls of outrage from much of the green community and, more crucially, from the prosperous carpet baggers who thought they had found a way to get a load of cash and some eco brownie-points at the same time. Which just goes to show that, if you wait long enough, even Conservatives will eventually stumble onto a good outcome.

Yo ho ho

A delightful run this morning along the frosty loch-side, with snow gleaming on the hills opposite.

Last night I watched a thought provoking documentary about making orchestral instruments almost entirely from scrap materials. Thought provoking not so much because of the obvious ingenuity that the instrument makers employed (and they were very ingenious) but more because re-use of scrap materials is such a novelty in our decadent and wasteful culture that it warrants a 90 minute television documentary. We should be ashamed. 

Board game from Tanzania

Warning - contains plot spoiler

A quick woodland run before heading back up to the Highlands.

Last night we watched the final episode of the BBC’s excellent series Frozen Planet- that's the episode that several countries have declined to purchase, mentioning no names, but the US & Canada know who I mean. This was also the episode which showed, with beautiful clarity, the accelerating consequences of global warming in the Arctic and Antarctic. As more ice melts, so more heat is absorbed, so more ice melts – and all the while sea levels rise. And climates change. And more droughts occur. And more people starve.

Bad Canada

A blustery run through very soggy woods.

Under the Kyoto protocol, Canada should have cut its carbon emissions by 6% by 2012. Instead, their emissions have risen by a third and, to avoid a financial penalty, they have withdrawn from the protocol – the first country so to do, significantly undermining global efforts to slow climate change (ref). To put their emissions into context, they rank 7^th out of 216 in total per country, and 15^th in total per capita, and 1^st equal in selfishness.

By jingo !

A blustery woodland run as gales return to the UK.

One notable feature of the wider troubles in the EU is the resurgence of jingoistic nationalism, as old grievances emerge from the woodwork, both in the media and in popular opinion. And not just in Britain. One of my special correspondents has just returned from the Netherlands and Germany, where the same tendency is also evident. This return to a 19^th century politic of strutting and blaming, combined with the growing pockets of right-wing extremism in many European countries (ref), is a worrying and toxic combination. 

Through a glass half full

A fine pre-dawn run through the moonlit woods, then back to the dispiriting prospect of endless media coverage of David Cameron whoring after another champion of democracy, the King of Bahrain (ref), and then posturing in front of his euro-sceptic cronies in parliament. There is plenty to be sceptical about with regard to the European Union, but these braying xenophobic yahoos* protecting their overpaid speculator chums in the City give scepticism a bad name. On the other hand, looking on the bright side, Scotland suddenly seems even closer to Scandinavia.

*Editor's note: that's a reference to the unpleasant creatures encountered by Gulliver whilst travelling on a gap year, not to a search engine.

Just not good enough

A long muddy walk in place of a run today.

In Durban the climate conference has ended, with similar last-minute excitement to the EU conference in Brussels. However, because David Cameron wasn't there, agreement was eventually reached, to extend the Kyoto protocol, and to spend the next 9 years talking about a new, more comprehensive, protocol. Johannes Beck, writing from Durban for Deutsche Welle, summarises the outcome as good, but nowhere good enough to make a difference, especially given the spectacular lack of commitment by some of the biggest polluters: USA, India, China, & Russia, as well as the equally spectacular arrogance of Canada & New Zealand (ref).

Inglourious basterd

A damp and chilly run through the woods

The news is inevitably still full of discussion about Cameron, Britain and the EU. Some of the more convincing comments suggest that the outcome was mainly due to Cameron’s personal weakness, lack of political skill and  failure to secure any European allies (ref 1, ref 2). Yesterday evening, with all the media attention on Brussels, he also took the opportunity for a sly release of information about his direct involvement with the unlovely Rupert Murdoch (ref).
Memo to Alex Salmond: today would be a very good day for the referendum about making Scotland wholly independent. 

Storm damage

A calm morning and a brisk run through the gale-damaged woods.

Disconcertingly, the left-leaning Guardian and right-leaning Daily Telegraph carry almost identical headlines today, about Prime Minister Cameron having placed Britain in a very isolated and vulnerable position in the midst of the euro-storm. To be fair, der Spiegel says something similar about Chancellor Merkel, although without the vulnerability part.

Meanwhile, another of my elite analysts has reported that, in Scotland, there are now more giant pandas (2)  than there are Conservative members of the UK Parliament (1), and suggested that the latter should also be conserved in a zoo as an endangered species. Personally, I would go for full extinction.

Pantomime season

No run yesterday or today, for reasons of travelling and tempest, respectively.

The latest news from the Durban Climate Summit pantomime is that India now seems to have taken on the role of arch-villain for being most uncompromising in placing economic growth as a higher priority than trying to stop global warming (ref). And, excitingly, next year’s UN climate summit will apparently be hosted in Qatar. That’s the Qatar which has easily the highest carbon emission level per person on the entire planet, suggesting that the 2012 theatrical farce will be even more spectacular, and probably performed on ice.

Meanwhile, back at home

A brisk and chilly run this morning, with the frozen hills looking utterly beautiful in the clear light.

And a cautiously optimistic statement by the Scottish National Party, reported appropriately in the Independent (ref). They are suggesting that, in the event of a successful referendum for independence from the UK, Scotland would actively seek stronger ties with Scandinavia, to redress the more southerly bias which has prevailed since the Act of Union in 1707. That union has always been more of an arranged marriage than a love-match and, by looking north and eastwards the SNP are reflecting the greater geographic and ethnographic compatibilities between Scotland and, say, Norway. Bring it on !

Looking ahead

A beautiful run this morning in the early light along the snow-covered loch-side.

I may have mentioned that Barak Obama seems to have failed to live up to the admittedly somewhat unrealistic expectations that he carried as successor to GW Bush. One of the main worries has been that he would stumble after one term of office and unleash another Republican government, at a time when the world needs restraint and intelligence from the US. Much can change in the months leading up to next year's election, but for now at least there is some comfort to be found in der Spiegel, which has a damning assessment of the main Republican presidential contenders. Comforting, that is, if the majority of US voters feel the same way. 

The opposite of Green is......Red ? Blue ?

A delayed-run morning, for reasons of heavy sleet.

Josh Garman of Greenpeace has written an excellent summary of the three main sticking points at the Durban summit – Kyoto, the Green Climate Fund, and signing of the next agreement. Progress on all three issues is being blocked, most spectacularly and influentially by the Obama administration, despite his green rhetoric. They have until December 9^th to avoid another fiasco.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, “Snake Oil” Cameron, who also wooed the voters with promises of the greenest government ever, is accused of leading the coalition on a path to becoming the most environmentally destructive government to hold power in this country since the modern environmental movement was born (ref). Actually, that’s not quite true. He is accused of being led down that path by the odious George Osborne, which is probably worse.

Durban Summit List of Shame: Day 5

• Canada - again !!! - for mocking the response to their performance in Durban. What is it with Canada ? They used to be so nice & polite. Can a whole country be stolen by the fairies & replaced with a grotesque simalcrum ?
• Brazil, Turkey and New Zealand also featured (ref).

Gloomy Saturday

A brisk & chilly run by the loch and then a full day so only now the chance to trawl the news. And what news ! Where does one start ? The Durban Climate Change Summit is grinding to a halt because the rich nations can't be arsed with the troubles faced by anywhere that's not a prospective trading partner (ref). Bellicose posturing by vote-hungry governments of US & Iran seems to be bringing yet another unwinnable war closer by the day (ref). And so on and so on. One small glimmer of hope is the UK Labour Party's shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna (ref), who seems to be intelligent, calm, and principled. He's also been referred to as a British Barak Obama, but we can only hope that he will be less of a disappointment.

George Osborne is a secret Trotskyist ?

Another chilly run along the saturated loch-side, in between the showers of sleet.

Talking of showers of sleet, two days ago George Osborne, denizen of the British aristocracy, heir to a wallpaper fortune, Chancellor of the Exchequer, and senior prefect to young David Cameron (ref), made his Autumn Statement about the UK’s financial position. According to the Institute of Fiscal Studies, this statement can be summarised as: the poor will become poorer and the rich richer whilst Osborne is at the wheel (ref). Finding something positive in such a scenario is quite a challenge but, if he outrages enough people, maybe he will single-handedly revive Socialism as a political force in the UK. On reflection, maybe he is really an agent provocateur planted by left-wing extremists to discredit the Conservatives. Don’t tell anyone – we don’t want to blow his cover.